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perjantai 15. maaliskuuta 2019
Scientists Find Earth is Cooling, Not Warming; NASA Predicts Mini-Ice Age
‘Solar minimum’ low point in 2019 or 2020
November 19, 2018 | Baxter Dmitry
Humanity could soon face a long, cold winter which could see temperatures around the globe plunge to record lows that will herald a “mini-Ice Age”, according to new scientific research by NASA.
‘We see a cooling trend,’ Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center told Space Weather, directly contradicting decades of global warming hysteria and false science promoted by conflicted scientists, politicians and mainstream media.
‘High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.’
Brace yourselves, because it could be about to get very, very cold.
Metro reports: Sunspot activity follows a cycle which is believed to last 11 years as the number of patches peaks and drops.
There have been very few spots on the sun for most of this year. This could mean that it will get very cold, very quickly.
However, it’s difficult to predict the impact of solar activity on the Earth and scientists are stil debating how sunspots affect our weather. ‘It could happen in a matter of months,’ Mlynczak added.
Earlier this year, NASA released a picture showing the blank face of the sun looking more like a snooker ball than the roiling surface of a super-hot star.
The sun is predicted to reach its ‘solar minimum’ low point in 2019 or 2020, according to Nasa’s calculations.
Perhaps the most famous period of low sunspot activity was the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.
During that time, there was a ‘little ice age’ when London’s Thames River froze over, although researchers believe that global warming will stop this happening again. Solar minimum may enhance the effects of space weather, disrupt communications and navigation, and even cause space junk to ‘hang around’, Nasa said.
Last year, a scientist claimed the chilling effect on the lack of sunspots could actually save us from global warming – although her claims were hotly disputed.
Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University, published a paper which contains ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect human lives’.
‘I hope global warming will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution,’ she said.
Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018. The information she unveiled should shake/wake you up.
Zharkova was one of the few that correctly predicted solar cycle 24 would be weaker than cycle 23 — only 2 out of 150 models predicted this.
Her models have run at a 93% accuracy and her findings suggest a Super Grand Solar Minimum is on the cards beginning 2020 and running for 350-400 years.
The last time we had a little ice age only two magnetic fields of the sun went out of phase.
This time, all four magnetic fields are going out of phase.
Here’s a great (and relatively brief) video explanation of Zharkova’s presentation from Diamond and Lee Wheelbarger:
And here’s the presentation in full:
If the world was looking for an Epiphany moment, this should be it.
Even if you believe the IPCC’s worst case scenario, Zharkova’s analysis blows any ‘warming’ out of the water.
Lee Wheelbarger sums it up: even if the IPCC’s worst case scenarios are seen, that’s only a 1.5 watts per square meter increase. Zharkova’s analysis shows a 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI to the planet.
Forget the arguments, debates and attempts to win over AGW alarmists — and just prepare.
High up in the clear blue noontime sky, the sun appears to be much the same day-in, day-out, year after year. But astronomers have long known that this is not true. The sun does change.
Properly-filtered telescopes reveal a fiery disk often speckled with dark sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized, and they crackle with solar flares — magnetic explosions that illuminate Earth with flashes of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. The sun is a seething mass of activity.
Until it’s not. Every 11 years or so, sunspots fade away, bringing a period of relative calm. “This is called solar minimum,” says Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight. Center in Greenbelt, MD. “And it’s a regular part of the sunspot cycle.”
The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Sunspot counts were relatively high in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019 - 2020.
While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar minimum, that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes form.
For instance, says Pesnell, “during solar minimum we can see the development of long-lived coronal holes.” Coronal holes are vast regions in the sun’s atmosphere where the sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
Pesnell says “We see these holes throughout the solar cycle, but during solar
minimum, they can last for a long time - six months or more.” Streams of solar wind flowing from coronal holes can cause space weather effects near Earth when they hit Earth’s magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances of the Earth’s magnetosphere, called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to communications and navigation systems.
During solar minimum, the effects of Earth’s upper atmosphere on satellites in low Earth orbit changes too.
Normally Earth’s upper atmosphere is heated and puffed up by ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Satellites in low Earth orbit experience friction as they skim through
the outskirts of our atmosphere. This friction creates drag, causing satellites to
lose speed over time and eventually fall back to Earth.
Drag is a good thing, for space junk; natural and man-made particles floating in orbit around Earth.
Drag helps keep low Earth orbit clear of debris. But during solar minimum, this natural heating mechanism subsides. Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and, to some degree, can collapse. Without a normal amount of drag, space junk tends to hang around.
There are unique space weather effects that get stronger during solar minimum. For example, the number of galactic cosmic rays that reach Earth’s upper atmosphere increases during solar minimum. Galactic cosmic rays are high energy particles accelerated toward the solar system by distant supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy.
Pesnell says that “During solar minimum, the sun’s magnetic field weakens and provides less shielding from these cosmic rays. This can pose an increased threat (and totally prevents) to astronauts traveling through space.”
A Van Allen radiation belt is a zone of energeticcharged particles, most of which originate from the solar wind, that are captured by and held around a planet by that planet's magnetic field. Earth has two such belts and sometimes others may be temporarily created. The discovery of the belts is credited to James Van Allen, and as a result, Earth's belts are known as the Van Allen belts.
Many things can change
temperatures on Earth: a volcano erupts, swathing the Earth with
bright haze that blocks sunlight, and temperatures drop;
gases trap heat in the atmosphere, and temperatures climb. From 1650
to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged
when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers. The term was introduced after John A. Eddy published a landmark 1976 paper in Science.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the
Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly.
Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the
Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze:
alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south
from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze
regularly— an event that is rare today.
The impact of the solar
minimum is clear in this image, which shows the temperature
difference between 1680, a year at the center of the Maunder Minimum,
and 1780, a year of normal solar activity, as calculated by a general
circulation model. Deep blue across eastern and central North America
and northern Eurasia illustrates where the drop in temperature was
the greatest. Nearly all other land areas were also cooler in 1680,
as indicated by the varying shades of blue. The few regions that
appear to have been warmer in 1680 are Alaska and the eastern Pacific
Ocean (left), the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland (left of
center), and north of Iceland (top center).
If energy from the Sun
decreased only slightly, why did temperatures drop so severely in the
Northern Hemisphere? Climate scientist Drew Shindell and colleagues
at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies tackled that question
by combining temperature records gleaned from tree rings, ice cores,
corals, and the few measurements recorded in the historical record,
with an advanced computer model of the Earth’s climate. The group
first calculated the amount of energy coming from the Sun during the
Maunder Minimum and entered the information into a general
circulation model. The model is a mathematical representation of the
way various Earth systems—ocean surface temperatures, different
layers of the atmosphere, energy reflected and absorbed from land,
and so forth—interact to produce the climate.
When the model started
with the decreased solar energy and returned temperatures that
matched the paleoclimate record, Shindell and his colleagues knew
that the model was showing how the Maunder Minimum could have caused
the extreme drop in temperatures. The model showed that the drop in
temperature was related to ozone in
the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that is between 10 and
50 kilometers from the Earth’s surface. Ozone is created when
high-energy ultraviolet light from the Sun interacts with oxygen.
During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun emitted less strong ultraviolet
light, and so less ozone formed. The decrease in ozone
affected planetary waves, the giant wiggles in the jet
stream that we are used to seeing on television weather reports.
The change to the
planetary waves kicked the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)— the
balance between a permanent low-pressure system near Greenland and a
permanent high-pressure system to its south — into a negative phase.
When the NAO is negative, both pressure systems are relatively weak.
Under these conditions, winter storms crossing the Atlantic generally
head eastward toward Europe, which experiences a more severe winter.
(When the NAO is positive, winter storms track farther north, making
winters in Europe milder.) The model results, shown above, illustrate
that the NAO was more negative on average during the Maunder Minimum,
and Europe remained unusually cold. These results matched the
By creating a model that
could reproduce temperatures recorded in paleoclimate records,
Shindell and colleagues reached a better understanding of how changes
in the stratosphere influence weather patterns. With such an
understanding, scientists are better poised to understand what
factors could influence Earth’s climate in the future. To read more
about how ancient temperature records are used to improve climate
models, see Paleoclimatology:
Understanding the Past to Predict the Future, the
final installment of a series
of articles about
paleoclimatology on the Earth Observatory.