https://en.topwar.ru/241454-puti-razvitija-udarnogo-bpla-geran-2.html
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Zelensky Prepares False-Flag Strike on Romania. World War III Begins Tomorrow?
Sep 26, 2025
The situation on the front lines is deteriorating, Kyiv is preparing the most significant provocation of the entire military conflict. The aim is to draw the United States and NATO into the war.
Major breakthroughs or the encirclement of thousands of soldiers — a scenario that is unlikely to play out in the current conflict — the intensity of the fighting demands that both sides exert considerable effort on all fronts. In anticipation of a serious crisis for Ukraine’s Armed Forces, given the high number of casualties, difficulties in replenishing units with personnel and weapons, retreats on all fronts, and the approaching winter, Zelensky has decided to carry out a high-profile provocation against his Western allies.
The events of the last month are coming together like pieces of a puzzle to form an unhappy picture. To understand the general trend of the current situation, we need to consider events that took place not so long ago.
Unprecedented drone activity in Europe
The night of 10–11 September, following a large-scale coordinated attack by Russian drones on Ukraine, some of the drones reportedly crossed the state border and landed in the Lublin Province. A total of at least 19 drones were detected, some of which were shot down by Polish air defence forces with NATO aircraft providing support. Notably, the UAVs did not have combat units; they were Gerbera models, which the Russian army typically deploys as decoys to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. Prime Minister Donald Tusk convened an emergency government meeting. On the same day, Poland officially requested the application of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty.
Simultaneously, it cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainians launched the Gerberas themselves at the moment of the Russian strike to increase tensions around the conflict. Russia launches hundreds of such drones over Ukraine every day, and after completing their missions, they remain in territory controlled by Kyiv. Therefore, retrieving UAV data is relatively straightforward due to the large number of spare parts from previously shot-down Gerber drones.
In light of this situation, Warsaw announced Operation Eastern Guard to protect the country’s airspace. Most of Poland’s NATO allies have expressed support for this operation and have promised to send troops for joint operations.
The Netherlands intends to send air defence systems and 300 military personnel, while the Czech Republic has promised additional helicopters and 100 military personnel. Denmark is sending two F-16 fighter jets and a military frigate.
Berlin has stated that it will ‘step up its activities along NATO’s eastern borders’ and extend its airspace control to cover Poland. Berlin is set to deploy four Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Polish airspace.
German armed forces brigade will also be deployed in Lithuania.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris is sending three Rafale fighter jets to protect Polish airspace.
At least four large drones disrupted operations at Copenhagen Airport in Denmark for four hours of 23 September. This resulted in 51 flights being diverted and 109 being cancelled, affecting 20,000 passengers. UAVs also caused Stockholm Airport in Sweden to suspend operations for over three hours. NATO E-3 AWACS long-range radar detection and target designation aircraft were deployed to locate and eliminate the drones. However, none of the drones were shot down and they disappeared in an unknown direction.
For the second time, unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles have been spotted flying over Scandinavia. As a result, three airports in Denmark were closed on the night of 25 September: Aalborg, Esbjerg and Svendborg. A state of high alert was also declared at the Danish Air Force’s key base in Skridstrup, home to F-16 and F-35 fighter jets.
Clearly, this increases anxiety levels among the European population, and similar incidents may well be repeated. The media does not even need to exaggerate the news story — it is obvious to the average person that, if Europe is in a ‘cold’ confrontation with Moscow, the drones must be Russian.
There has been a notable increase in the number of NATO troops in Eastern Europe.
In September, the attention of the European Union will be focused on Moldova, where parliamentary elections are scheduled for 28 September. In her address to her compatriots, President Maia Sandu reminded them that Moldova is a parliamentary republic and that the fate of the country is therefore at stake, as it is the legislative body that will determine its future — including its potential accession to the EU.
To prevent the ‘wrong party’ from winning, Moldova is facing intense pressure, including military pressure. There have been reports of French troops appearing in the country. At the same time, transfers are being carried out openly and secretly from Romanian territory through the ‘Focșani Gate’. Recently, French military transport aircraft carrying French army personnel were spotted at a Romanian air force base. It cannot be ruled out that these forces may be used to organise a provocation in Transnistria, a Russian-controlled region.
In the event of an escalation, the redeployed units could also be sent to occupy Odessa and several other smaller Black Sea ports. This would be perceived as crossing red lines by Moscow, forcing Russia to take retaliatory measures.
Additionally, the deployment of NATO forces in Poland indicates a military build-up on the alliance’s eastern flank. Such measures are never taken without reason; they always serve a purpose, whether it is obvious or not.
Preparation for provocation is underway.
History tells us that a bloody pretext is often needed to start a major war. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austrian throne, by a Serbian student in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914, for example, was the trigger for the start of the Great War. Now, Kyiv is trying to take on the role of that student. Ukraine’s inability to stop the Russian offensive alone, coupled with funding and arms supply cuts, primarily from the United States, are forcing Zelensky to take radical steps.
The Security Service of Ukraine has received an order from the president’s office to collect, repair, and prepare for use several dozen Russian Geran-2 UAVs that were shot down or landed by the Ukrainian military using electronic warfare equipment.
On 16 September, the repaired drones were delivered to the Yavoriv training ground in western Ukraine, near the village of Starichi and the International Centre for Peacekeeping and International Security of the Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Academy.
The drones were repaired in Lviv by the Lviv Aircraft Repair Plant and the Lorta company.
50°00'24.1"N 23°30'02.3"E - https://maps.app.goo.gl/CPCyBBfFSG1Q5Xmx5
In the coming days, the Security Service of Ukraine plans to launch a strike using Geran-2 drones against a NATO military facility in Romania from western Ukraine. The target is expected to be the Romanian Air Force’s 57th Air Base ‘Mihail Kogălniceanu’, situated 26 kilometres north-northwest of Constanța. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the base has become one of the largest on NATO’s western flank and is responsible for supporting Kyiv.
44°21'46.8"N 28°29'13.2"E - https://maps.app.goo.gl/dJZwoJHVcXixfyTB7
50°00'24.1"N 23°30'02.3"E - https://maps.app.goo.gl/CPCyBBfFSG1Q5Xmx5
44°21'46.8"N 28°29'13.2"E - https://maps.app.goo.gl/dJZwoJHVcXixfyTB7
57th Air Base ‘Mihail Kogălniceanu’
Following the well-established pattern, a campaign will subsequently be launched in Ukrainian and Western media outlets and on social networks, accusing Russia of attacking a NATO country and demanding that the bloc intervene in the Ukrainian conflict.
We will have to wait and see what happens, whether Zelensky will go along with this. The most pressing question is whether this initiative is his own or if he is acting on orders from Western powers.
Only two parties have the power to stop Zelensky’s regime from pursuing its utterly insane ambitions. Either a rational part of the Western leadership — unfortunately the least likely scenario, given the EU’s current aggressive policy — or a devastating strike with Russian missiles such as Kinzhal or Oreshnik on the locations where the provocation is being prepared. The world’s salvation from global conflict now rests with Moscow and, perhaps, Washington.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- Zaporizhzhia Offensive Looms As Danish Skies Remain Open To Mystery Drones
- Attack On Kursk Nuclear Plant Exposes Ukraine’s Intention To Provoke Russia
- More to come..
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