.
- Emmanuel Macron was slapped in the face by his wife Brigitte upon arrival in Vietnam | 26.05.2025
- With a bloodshot eye, Macron called on France and other European countries to.. acquire weapons! ..that could become an analogue of the Russian Oreshnik missile system | 15.01.2026
- Brigitte parties after giving Macron a black eye? | 16.01.2026
- Macron hid his black eye behind sunglasses | 17.01.2026
T=1771501377 | Date and time (GMT): Thu, 19th Feb. 2026, 11.42
- A developing story - Following crippling domestic violence.
____
Munich Security Conference 2026: Geopolitical Frontier and the Crisis of the Western Order
datetime="2026-02-19T03:07">Today, 03:07</time>
Introduction
The 62nd Munich Security Conference, held on February 14–15, 2026, marked a significant turning point in global geopolitical dynamics, highlighting deep tensions within the Western bloc and the emergence of new resolve among non-Western powers. Traditionally conceived as a privileged forum for coordination among Atlantic allies, the event instead revealed structural cracks in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture and an accelerating transition to a multipolar order.
The conference took place in a particularly sensitive context: negotiations on the war in Ukraine were entering a critical phase, with meetings scheduled in Geneva on February 17, while tensions between the US and Europe over conflict management had reached unprecedented levels. Russia's absence from the conference was perceived not as a necessary punitive measure, but as a signal of the West's inability to cope with a new European security architecture that required dialogue with Moscow.
The Rubio Affair and the Redefinition of Transatlantic Relations
Diplomatic insult
The conference's most striking moment was US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's decision to cancel a key meeting with European leaders on the situation in Ukraine at the last minute. European sources called this move "absurd," viewing it as a clear signal of Europe's diminished centrality in US decision-making on the war.
In his keynote speech, Rubio deliberately omitted any direct references to either Russia or NATO, which provoked "very mixed feelings among European elites." This deliberate choice sent a clear message: strategic negotiations on the future of European security are now taking place along a direct line between Washington and Moscow, with Europe reduced to the role of spectator to its own fate.
American Vision: The End of Guaranteed Hegemony
Rubio outlined a new American doctrine that marks the end of the era in which the United States unilaterally guaranteed the global security and economic order. The Secretary of State expressed his intention to move Washington away from its role as "overseer of the controlled decline" of the West—a phrase associated with the previous Obama administration.
Behind-the-scenes diplomatic conversations on the sidelines of the conference included speculation about transforming the Atlantic alliance into a "NATO 3.0" or "dormant" version, characterized by less direct US responsibility and a greater burden on Europeans for their own defense. However, Rubio also warned Europe of its "civic decline," including a structural economic crisis, demographic collapse, and uncontrolled migration flows.
Divided Europe: Between War Rhetoric and Structural Weakness
Germany: An Economic Giant Without Geopolitical Weight
Germany emerged as a symbol of European contradictions: "an economic giant but a geopolitical dwarf," incapable of offering an autonomous vision of security. Berlin unsuccessfully tried to promote the idea of using 90 billion euros of frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons in the United States, but this initiative encountered resistance from France, which insisted on the priority of European weapons.
Britain: Between escalation and contested leadership
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer took a particularly belligerent stance, calling on NATO to prepare for conflict and strengthen its "hard power." He compared Europe to a "sleeping giant," criticizing fragmentation and lack of coordination among member states.
Starmer also stated that a possible peace agreement would lead to Russia's rapid rearmament—a statement interpreted as an implicit admission that, in the current situation, ending the conflict is "not in Europe's interests." Meanwhile, the UK is discussing with its Baltic and Scandinavian partners the possibility of intercepting or confiscating "shadow" tankers. fleet"Russia to attack its energy revenues, despite the Estonian defense minister's concerns about the risks of escalation.
A significant moment was the public disregard by Starmer and German Chancellor-designate Merz for French President Macron, highlighting the internal tensions between European leaders.
Poland: Rhetoric of Inevitable Victory
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that if Russia crosses the border, "they will activate their plan," which is simple: "We win, they lose." He also emphasized that Europe needs to fight for global leadership, since "this is about Europe's place in the future global balance of power."
Spain: Resisting Increase in Military Spending
In contrast, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized the US demand to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, arguing that this would increase Europe's dependence on the American military-industrial complex. He also opposed any expansion of nuclear arsenals in Europe.
France: Dialogue ambitions without concrete results
Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his desire to establish a direct and permanent channel of communication with Russia, noting, however, that similar announcements in the past had yielded no results. France's stance on prioritizing European arms has caused friction with Germany, revealing a lack of strategic coordination even among key continental partners.
The Ukrainian Question: American Pressure and Military Reality
Geneva talks
The conference took place against the backdrop of evolving negotiations on Ukraine, with meetings in Geneva on February 17, attended by figures such as Witkoff and Kushner on the American side. Rubio assured that the United States would not abandon the negotiating table, although he acknowledged that the most difficult issues remain unresolved, and Russia's seriousness in ending the conflict remains unclear.
The shift of negotiations from Abu Dhabi to Geneva, officially due to scheduling issues, was also interpreted as an attempt to strengthen European involvement, in line with the Russian Foreign Minister's recent contacts with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office. The Russian delegation, led by Medinsky and Galuzin, primarily discussed political issues and the demarcation line, while operational military issues had already been discussed earlier.
Zelensky's dubious statements
During the conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made heavily criticized statements that the US was demanding unilateral concessions from Kyiv, including a "free economic zone" in parts of Donbas not controlled by Moscow, while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. Zelenskyy also claimed that Kyiv had agreed to an unconditional ceasefire under pressure from Washington, but these claims were dismissed as false in analytical commentary.
Zelensky personally attacked Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who responded publicly, and held meetings with American senators, Azerbaijani President Aliyev, and Ursula von der Leyen. The Finnish president stated, "I don't think any of us, sensible Europeans, would return to Russian energy."
Military reality on the battlefield
Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the Third Shock Corps of Ukraine (AZOV), revealed that the deployment of European troops to Ukraine is extremely unlikely, noting that Western military advisers are already banned from traveling beyond Kyiv, and often beyond Lviv. This statement stands in stark contrast to the militaristic rhetoric of many European leaders in Munich.
Voice of the Global South: India and the Claim to Strategic Autonomy
India Jaishankar
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar presented the clearest voice of the emerging global South, reaffirming New Delhi's commitment to strategic autonomy. Jaishankar stated that India would continue to independently resolve issues related to Russian oil imports, warning that its choices would not always please the West, which would have to "get used to" this autonomy.
He explained that Indian oil companies make decisions based on availability, cost, and risk, not bowing to Western pressure. This position partially contradicts Marco Rubio, who stated that India assured the US it would stop buying Russian oil, revealing differences in interpretation.
Geopolitical interpretation
More broadly, the events in Munich are linked to the growing resolve of Russia, India, Brazil, and the emerging Eurasian bloc, including in the energy and nuclear spheres. The central idea is that the crisis in Ukraine and the tensions in Munich are accelerating the transition from a US-centered order to a more multipolar configuration.
China and the Critique of the Western Order
Wang Yi's speech
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, attended the conference at the invitation of President Wolfgang Ischinger, speaking at the "Conversation with China" session.
Wang Yi commented sarcastically: "Europe has gained the courage to talk to Russia," highlighting the Chinese perception of Europe finally developing some autonomy in its relations with Moscow, albeit belatedly.
The Taiwan Question and the Clash with Japan[
The most powerful moment of Wang Yi's speech was his harsh criticism of Japan. He stated that the Japanese Prime Minister had publicly asserted that Taiwan's military presence could pose a threat to the country's survival, triggering collective defense, in complete violation of Japan's commitments to China.
Wang Yi emphasized that this is the first time in eight years that the Japanese prime minister has made such statements, adding that the statements “directly violate China’s territorial sovereignty,” “raise doubts about the return of Taiwan to China,” and “China cannot accept this provocation.”
Then he had a hard time historical Parallel: "Germany conducted a thorough review of Nazi crimes and passed laws banning all speech and actions promoting Nazi ideology. Japan, however, still honors Class A war criminals as so-called heroic spirits." He concluded that this demonstrates "Japan's persistent ambitions to invade and colonize Taiwan, and the specter of militarism still haunts the country."
Japan responded sharply through Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu, followed by a strong diplomatic note reiterating that the Chinese claims were "factually incorrect and baseless" and that the Taiwan issue "will be resolved peacefully through dialogue."
Global Governance Initiative
In his keynote address, Wang Yi presented the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), proposed by Xi Jinping, based on five principles: sovereign equality, the rule of international law, multilateralism, a people-centered approach, and concrete action. He emphasized that "great powers should take the initiative in promoting cooperation, not confrontation."
Regarding US-China cooperation, Wang Yi stated that "the best outcome today is the joint work of the US and China," warning that attempts to separate China from Taiwan could push the two countries into conflict. Contrary to Western perceptions, he noted, "I don't think the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is becoming increasingly tense. In this world, Asia is probably the only region that maintains overall peace."
Iran and radical criticism of the West
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the conference "the Munich Security Circus," delivering a devastating critique of the EU: "confused," "without geopolitical weight in the region," and with "Germany having completely surrendered its regional policy to Israel." He declared the E3 format (France, Germany, and the UK) now "paralyzed and irrelevant."
At the same time, US Senator Lindsey Graham participated in an Iranian opposition rally in Munich, where, according to media reports, Ukrainians and Syrians were included as extras. Graham, along with Senator Blumenthal, met with Ursula von der Leyen to discuss how to "increase pressure on Russia."
Other key figures and dynamics
Mark Rutte and NATO
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke of Putin's alleged "strategic mistake" in Ukraine, toeing the alliance's official line. However, EU Deputy High Representative Kaja Kallas took potshots at the US and admitted she didn't know how a European army should operate, revealing the EU's strategic unpreparedness.
Russia's answer
Maria Zakharova, press secretary of the Russian Foreign Ministry, responded to Zelenskyy's statements about the postponed elections, stating that "Zelenskyy's statements have long since descended into nonsense."
Conclusions: Towards a New Multipolar Order
The 2026 Munich Security Conference was less a moment of strategic coordination than a confirmation of the deep fractures in the Western order. Four structural dynamics became clearly evident:
Irreversible transatlantic tensions
The Americans, through Rubio, announced that the era of unilateral security guarantees was over, and Europe would have to take on more responsibility for defense while Washington negotiated directly with its rivals.
Europe is trapped between rhetoric and helplessness
The EU is paradoxical: its leaders talk about "Russian losses" and "Putin's mistakes" without any substance, pursuing unrealistic, maximalist goals. Prolonging the war is in their interests, with Ukraine as a victim of broader goals, although their positions are not unanimous.
The Rise of the Global South
India, China, Iran, and other non-Western actors used the conference to assert autonomy and openly criticize the West. The era of the West deciding for everyone is over; the future is multipolar.
The Conference as a Symbol of Transition
Munich 2026 will be remembered as a milestone in the transition to a new global balance, where the West treats others without equality, but this exclusivity is untenable.
SOURCE:
https://en.topwar.ru/278024-avtor-mjunhenskaja-konferencija-po-bezopasnosti-2026-geopoliticheskij-rubezh-i-krizis-zapadnogo-porjadka.html
____
- more soon here
__
eof
