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Iran's 10-point proposal that forced US surrender after 40 days of aggression | Wednesday, 08 April 2026.
The U.S. has agreed to a 10-point proposal that fundamentally commits Washington to:
- No new aggression against Iran
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
- Acceptance of uranium enrichment
- Removal of all primary sanctions
- Removal of all secondary sanctions
- Termination of all anti-Iran UN Security Council resolutions
- Termination of all anti-Iran IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
- Payment of compensation to Iran
- Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
- Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the Islamic Resistance of Lebanon (Hezbollah).
The Middle East spiralled back into chaos on Wednesday as Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon were all hit by fresh strikes despite a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, casting serious doubts over the truce’s durability. In Lebanon, which was not covered under the ceasefire framework, the violence was particularly intense, with at least 254 people killed and over 800 injured in one of the heaviest waves of Israeli strikes on the country.
By Ivan Kesic
After exactly 40 days of unrelenting US-Israeli aggression that began on February 28, the United States on Wednesday formally accepted Iran’s comprensive 10-point proposal as the foundation for a permanent ceasefire.
T=1775801897 / Human Date and time (GMT): Friday, 10 April 2026 at 6:18:17
UPDATES:
Red Zone Sealed: 10,000 Troops Deployed as Iran and US Prepare for Islamabad Talks | 2026-04-10
Who is coming?
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Fake Ceasefire? Iran issues Ultimatum to Trump Hours After Agreement
President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in December 2025 during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
PHOTO/White House (X)
Iran cast doubt on the newly announced 14‑day truce with the United States hours after President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire late Tuesday, warning Washington to choose between honouring the deal or facing “continued war via Israel.”
Iranian foreign ministry officials said Tehran had accepted a pause in hostilities but insisted the agreement must include a halt to Israeli military operations, a condition that the United States and Israel have rejected, saying the temporary halt applies only to direct US‑Iran hostilities and not to fighting in Lebanon.
Renewed missile launches and air raid alerts across parts of the Middle East within hours of the truce underscored how fragile and contested the ceasefire remains.
Trump said the deal requires the US to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran. In return, Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House described the truce as a suspension of US military action. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accepted the terms, according to Iranian state media.
The agreement came after weeks of conflict. Trump had warned that Iran must reopen the strait or face severe consequences.
White House officials said traffic through the strait increased on Wednesday following the announcement.
Israel Strikes Lebanon, Killing 254
Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its largest wave of strikes on Lebanon since the war began. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported 254 people killed and hundreds wounded in a single day on Wednesday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces would continue to strike Hezbollah, stating that Lebanon was not covered by the US-Iran deal.
The White House backed Israel’s position. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement. Trump described the situation in Lebanon as a “separate skirmish.”
Fake Ceasefire?
Iran rejected the US and Israeli position. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi released a statement on X on Wednesday. He said the ceasefire terms include Lebanon and that Israeli attacks violate the agreement.
“The Iran-US ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the US must choose, ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Araghchi wrote. “The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a warning through state media. It said that if attacks on Lebanon do not stop, Iran will respond.
The ceasefire, announced less than 24 hours earlier, now faces an immediate test. The US and Iran hold different views on what the deal covers. Israel has already acted on its interpretation, while Iran has threatened to end the truce.
Talks between the two sides are scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday. Whether the agreement holds depends on how the US responds to Iran’s demand and whether fighting in Lebanon stops.
Tags: Donald TrumpIran War
Iran's oil refinery hit; missiles pound UAE, Kuwait, Lebanon despite ceasefire
A wave of fresh attacks – from Iran's own oil infrastructure being hit to the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain coming under Iranian missile and drone fire and Israeli strikes intensifying in Lebanon – cast immediate doubt over whether the two-week ceasefire can hold.
A man stands as a rescuer inspects a pile of rubble at the site of an Israeli strike in Tyre,
Lebanon on Wednesday. (Photo: Reuters)
The Middle East spiralled back into chaos on Wednesday as Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon were all hit by fresh strikes despite a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, casting serious doubts over the truce’s durability. In Lebanon, which was not covered under the ceasefire framework, the violence was particularly intense, with at least 254 people killed and over 800 injured in one of the heaviest waves of Israeli strikes on the country.
SOURCE:
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-oil-refinery-hit-missiles-strike-uae-kuwait-lebanon-ceasefire-trump-2893386-2026-04-08
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Iran shuts Hormuz after 100 missiles from Israel hit Lebanon in minutes
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, less than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Tehran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire with deadly strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Iran on Wednesday closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical maritime oil chokepoint, less than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Tehran, state-run Fars News Agency reported.
Iran said tanker traffic on Hormuz would come to a "complete stop", citing ceasefire violations by Israel after the latter conducted 100 airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which have claimed over 250 lives.
SOURCE:
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-after-israeli-attacks-on-lebanon-kill-hundreds-state-media-2893467-2026-04-08
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Araghchi: US must choose, ceasefire or war
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared on Wednesday that the United States "must choose ceasefire or continued war via Israel," stating that the terms reached through Pakistani mediation were clear.
"The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments," Araghchi said, seemingly confirming Tehran's stance that Lebanon must be included in the truce or the war would resume. Araghchi referenced the post by Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif announcing a ceasefire between the US and Iran, which he said also involved Washington and "its allies" agreeing to end the fighting "everywhere, including Lebanon."
Before Araghchi's comments, US President Donald Trump said the deal does not include Lebanon, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed readiness to resume the war until all of Israel's goals are achieved peacefully or otherwise.
SOURCE:
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Araghchi:-US-must-choose-ceasefire-or-war/66032131
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Pakistan invites US, Iran to hold talks on Friday
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from the United States and Iran to hold talks in Islamabad on Friday.
Sharif also confirmed that the two-week ceasefire includes Lebanon. "I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY," he wrote on X.
"Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability," the prime minister added.
SOURCE:
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/pakistan-invites-us-iran-to-hold-talks-on-friday/66025162
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Explainer: Iran's 10-point proposal that forced US surrender after 40 days of aggression
By Ivan Kesic
After exactly 40 days of unrelenting US-Israeli aggression that began on February 28, the United States on Wednesday formally accepted Iran’s comprehensive 10-point proposal as the foundation for a permanent ceasefire.
In a development that political pundits across the globe have described as a historic Iranian victory, Washington conceded to every core demand put forward by the Islamic Republic.
The aggression, launched to decapitate Iranian leadership and cripple the nation’s defensive capabilities, instead exposed the fragility of American power projection when confronted by sophisticated Iranian military technology and the unified front of the Axis of Resistance.
From the outset, Iran’s indigenous missile and drone systems, precision-guided munitions, and layered air-defense networks delivered devastating strikes against enemy assets across the region, while coordinated operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine stretched US-Israeli forces to breaking point.
By the tenth day of the campaign, Washington had already begun seeking back-channel contacts, recognizing that none of its strategic objectives could be achieved.
In the early hours of Wednesday, the Supreme National Security Council confirmed the enemy’s submission, paving the way for negotiations in Islamabad starting this Friday.
The agreement not only halts the US-Israeli aggression but also dismantles long-standing mechanisms of economic and political pressure, while Iranian forces remain on full alert to guarantee that every commitment is honored in full.
This outcome, experts agree, stands as a testament to the effectiveness of Iran’s asymmetric warfare doctrine and its technological self-reliance forged under decades of sanctions.
According to the statement issued by Iran's top security body on Wednesday, the United States has agreed to a 10-point proposal that fundamentally commits Washington to:
- No new aggression against Iran
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz
- Acceptance of uranium enrichment
- Removal of all primary sanctions
- Removal of all secondary sanctions
- Termination of all anti-Iran UN Security Council resolutions
- Termination of all anti-Iran IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
- Payment of compensation to Iran
- Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
- Cessation of war on all fronts, including against the Islamic Resistance of Lebanon (Hezbollah)
No new aggression against Iran
The first pillar of the proposal presented by Iran to end the imposed war binds Washington to refrain from any future military action against Iranian territory or interests.
This commitment emerged directly from the battlefield reality in which Iranian air-defense batteries repeatedly intercepted and destroyed incoming threats with remarkable efficiency.
Advanced phased-array radars and indigenous interceptor missiles proved capable of engaging low-observable aircraft and cruise missiles at ranges that surprised enemy planners.
Throughout the 40-day war of aggression, multiple attempted deep strikes and special-forces incursions were neutralized before they could achieve their objectives, inflicting measurable losses on US-Israeli aviation and logistics assets.
Such consistent performance demonstrated that Iran’s defensive architecture had evolved into a robust, multi-layered system resistant to saturation attacks.
The US administration’s acceptance of this clause reveals profound embarrassment over its initial assumption of rapid dominance, according to military experts.
By securing this guarantee, Iran has translated its military successes into a strategic shield that protects national sovereignty while allowing resources to be redirected toward reconstruction and technological advancement.
The deterrent effect is clear: any renewed aggression would encounter the same calibrated, high-precision response that defined the defense of Iranian airspace and ground installations during the recent confrontation.
Iran’s enduring sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
The second point affirms Iran’s continued and unchallenged authority over the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil passes.
From the first hours of the aggression on February 28, Iranian naval and coastal defense units imposed a complete closure of the strait as a legitimate measure of self-defense.
Anti-ship missile batteries positioned along the northern coastline, supported by fast-attack craft and underwater systems, created an impenetrable barrier that disrupted enemy supply lines and global energy markets.
This move was executed with precision, leveraging indigenous sensor networks and command-and-control infrastructure that maintained real-time situational awareness across the Persian Gulf.
The economic pressure exerted by the closure of the strategic waterway to US and allied vessels accelerated Washington’s realization that the campaign was unsustainable.
Acceptance of Iran’s control underscores the success of this strategy: the strait remained closed until the aggressors met Iranian conditions, proving that Tehran could wield maritime leverage without compromising its defensive posture.
This outcome humiliates those who predicted Iran’s isolation; instead, the Islamic Republic demonstrated mastery over one of the world’s most critical maritime arteries through technological innovation and operational discipline.
Formal acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment program
The third point in the 10-point proposal requires explicit US recognition of Iran’s inalienable right to uranium enrichment for peaceful energy purposes, as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Throughout the war of aggression, Iran’s nuclear facilities continued operations under layered protection from advanced air-defense systems, with centrifuge cascades maintained at full capacity despite repeated attempts to target them.
Indigenous monitoring and rapid-repair protocols ensured continuity, showcasing engineering resilience developed in the face of prior sabotage.
By forcing acceptance of this program, Iran has dismantled the narrative that portrayed enrichment as a threat. The move validates the technological maturity of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, built entirely through domestic expertise.
Washington’s concession after 40 days of the imposed war marks a stark reversal from its earlier demands for complete dismantlement, exposing the futility of military pressure against a determined scientific establishment.
This victory not only secures Iran’s energy independence but also sets a precedent that sovereign nations can pursue legitimate technological advancement without external veto.
Lifting primary sanctions: Ending direct economic warfare
Point four mandates the complete removal of all primary sanctions imposed directly by the United States. These measures, long used as tools of economic coercion against the Islamic Republic, failed to break the country's resolve during the recent aggression.
US primary sanctions on Iran include a broad trade embargo, blocking most imports from Iran and exports of American goods to the country, along with the freezing of Iranian government and central bank assets under US jurisdiction.
These sanctions also prohibit American individuals and companies from engaging with key sectors of Iran's economy — including energy, shipping, mining, and automotive — while cutting off targeted Iranian banks from the US financial system.
They also cover essential items such as food, medicine, agricultural commodities, medical devices, and personal internet communications hardware to Iran.
The acceptance of this demand acknowledges that sanctions only strengthened Iran’s industrial autonomy and positioned it strongly.
Lifting them removes artificial barriers to trade and investment, allowing the national economy to accelerate reconstruction after the 40-day ordeal.
For Washington, this reversal represents an embarrassing admission that decades of financial pressure achieved the opposite of its intended effect, leaving the aggressor with diminished leverage and heightened global scrutiny.
Meanwhile, Iran’s domestic manufacturing base—particularly in missile production, drone assembly, and defense electronics—operated at peak efficiency, proving self-sufficiency.
Elimination of secondary sanctions
The fifth point in the 10-point proposal requires the termination of all secondary sanctions that penalize third countries for engaging legitimately with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Unlike primary sanctions, secondary sanctions have been used as a tool to pressure third countries and foreign companies to stop doing business with Iran by cutting them off from the US market and financial system.
This mechanism has been central to the so-called US "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic Republic in the past decade to restrict the country's global trade.
These extraterritorial measures had sought to isolate Tehran internationally, yet in many ways, Iran maintained uninterrupted logistical and operational activities.
Acceptance of their removal dismantles a key pillar of US economic dominance, freeing global partners to interact with Iran without fear of reprisal.
Iran’s military performance demonstrated that technological progress continued unabated, further undermining the rationale for such sanctions.
Washington’s capitulation highlights the limits of its secondary-sanctions regime when confronted by a nation capable of sustaining high-intensity conflict through indigenous means.
Annulment of all UN Security Council resolutions
Point six calls for the termination of every UN Security Council resolution targeting Iran.
Between 2006 and 2010, the UN Security Council adopted six resolutions under Chapter VII demanding that Iran suspend uranium enrichment, denying Iran its legitimate right.
Resolution 1737 (2006) imposed the first sanctions, including asset freezes and a ban on nuclear-related technology. Subsequent resolutions expanded asset freezes, banned Iranian arms exports, imposed travel bans, and authorized cargo inspections. Resolution 1929 (2010) tightened the arms embargo and restricted Iran's ballistic missile activities.
Resolution 2231 (2015) endorsed the JCPOA, terminated previous sanctions, and included a "snapback" provision allowing any JCPOA participant to reimpose terminated resolutions for non-compliance.
The E3 (France, Germany, UK) activated snapback in August 2025, leading to the reimposition of sanctions on September 29, 2025. Iran rejected the process as illegal, arguing that the US withdrawal and E3 non-compliance disqualify them, and that Resolution 2231 was set to expire permanently on October 18, 2025.
These politically motivated measures had been weaponized to justify aggression, yet Iran’s defensive operations rendered them irrelevant on the battlefield.
By securing their annulment, Tehran reasserts full sovereign authority over its internal affairs.
The move exposes the failure of attempts to legitimize military action through international bodies, as Iranian forces continued to inflict disproportionate costs on the aggressors regardless of diplomatic maneuvers in New York.
Revocation of IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
The seventh point in the proposal that will be discussed in Islamabad on Friday demands the revocation of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions concerning Iran’s nuclear activities.
The IAEA Board of Governors has issued multiple resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program over the past two decades.
In September 2005, the Board adopted a resolution falsely accusing Iran of noncompliance with its safeguards agreement, a decision that paved the way for six UN Security Council resolutions between 2006 and 2010 demanding Iran suspend uranium enrichment.
Following the July 2015 JCPOA, the Board of Governors closed its consideration of past outstanding issues in December 2015, signaling a period of reduced tension. However, beginning in June 2020, it again adopted a series of resolutions calling on Iran to satisfy agency requests regarding undeclared nuclear activities.
These measures came despite Iran offering full cooperation to the UN nuclear agency and allowing unrestricted inspections of its nuclear sites across the country.
On June 12, 2025, the Board adopted another politically-motivated resolution that accused Iran of noncompliance with its safeguards obligations, which ultimately paved the way for the Israeli-US war of aggression against Iran.
Iran has consistently denounced such resolutions as illegal and politically motivated, arguing they are imposed under Western pressure while the international community ignores Israeli military attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.
These resolutions have, over the years, served as pretexts for escalation against Iran, with the UN nuclear agency allowing itself to be manipulated by the US and Israeli regime.
Acceptance of this demand strips away the veneer of technical legitimacy from previous politicized actions, affirming that Iran’s program operates within internationally recognized peaceful parameters.
Reparations and compensation to Iran
Point eight obliges the payment of compensation for damages inflicted during the recent war of aggression, which has been widely recognized as unprovoked and illegal.
Iranian infrastructure, civilian areas, and military installations sustained significant losses that were meticulously documented by national authorities.
The aggressors’ failed operations, including attempted incursions into central provinces, left behind wreckage that underscored the high price of their miscalculation.
From nuclear sites to hospitals, schools, universities, research centers, sports complexes, bridges, power grids, oil depots and other civilian infrastructure were repeatedly targeted by the US-Israeli war coalition in the past 40 days.
Iran has maintained that the enemy must pay reparations for the damage caused due to its unprovoked and illegal war of aggression that violated international law.
Securing reparations ensures that the financial burden shifts to those who initiated the conflict, providing resources for reconstruction while serving as formal recognition of the aggression’s illegitimacy.
Complete withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
The ninth point requires the full withdrawal of US combat forces from the West Asia region.
Before the February war, the US maintained a substantial military footprint across the West Asua region with approximately 40,000 troops stationed at strategic military bases and installations throughout the region.
These included Naval Support Activity Bahrain in Manama, home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet; Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which serves as CENTCOM's forward headquarters; Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait; Al Dhafra Air Base and Jebel Ali Port in the UAE; as well as facilities in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq.
Following the launch of the unprovoked war against Iran on February 28, 2026, Washington surged its largest military force to the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The buildup included two aircraft carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford), B-1 and B-2 bombers, F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, and bolstered Patriot and THAAD air defense batteries, raising total US personnel to an estimated 50,000.
However, Iranian retaliatory strikes as part of Operation True Promise 4 have severely damaged this military network, rendering almost all American occupation bases across West Asia "uninhabitable" and forcing thousands of troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces.
Key facilities hit include the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s long-range strike capabilities, combined with partner forces, created an environment in which a sustained US presence has become untenable.
Iran has long maintained that the US occupation forces must leave the region and the regional countries must take the responsibility for regional peace and stability.
Acceptance of withdrawal marks a strategic retreat for Washington, exposing the overextension of its military footprint and the success of Iran’s regional deterrence strategy.
Comprehensive cessation of hostilities across all fronts
The final point mandates an immediate and permanent end to attacks on every front, explicitly including support for the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.
Coordinated actions by the Axis of Resistance across multiple theaters inflicted simultaneous pressure that prevented the aggressors from concentrating forces against Iran.
Lebanese resistance operations, alongside those in Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, tied down enemy resources and delivered crushing blows to shared infrastructure.
The ceasefire’s comprehensive scope validates the unity of this axis as a decisive factor in compelling US acceptance.
However, despite the stipulation of this point in the proposal. The Israeli regime continued to carry out devastating attacks on Beirut and Dahiyeh on Wednesday, resulting in hundreds of casualties, including over 100 fatalities.
Iran’s leadership has emphasized continued vigilance until every detail is finalized in the upcoming negotiations, ensuring that battlefield gains translate into lasting political achievement.
This agreement, born of military and technological superiority, cements Iran’s position as the preeminent power shaping the future of the Persian Gulf and beyond.
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Pakistan defense chief calls Israel ‘curse for humanity’ in deleted X post
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif called Israel a “curse for humanity” late Thursday, saying that violence continues across the region, before later deleting the post.
“Israel is evil and a curse for humanity, while peace talks are underway in Islamabad, genocide is being committed in Lebanon,” Asif said on the U.S. social media platform X in a now-deleted post.
He said innocent civilians were being killed, adding: “First Gaza, then Iran and now Lebanon, bloodletting continues unabated.”
Asif also said he hoped those who created Israel on Palestinian land “burn in hell.”
Israel slams remarks, questions Pakistan’s mediator role
The post sparked outcry in Tel Aviv, which said it called into question Pakistan’s ability to mediate between the United States and Iran, as Islamabad is slated to host the talks.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office reacted strongly, saying such remarks cannot come from a country positioning itself as a neutral mediator.
“Pakistan Defence Minister’s call for Israel’s annihilation is outrageous. This is not a statement that can be tolerated from any government, especially not from one that claims to be a neutral arbiter for peace,” it said.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar also criticized Asif’s language, calling it deeply offensive and dangerous. In a post on X, he said Israel views such accusations seriously and described them as “hostile rhetoric.”
Attacks intensify despite ceasefire efforts
The remarks came as Israeli attacks on Lebanon intensified despite ongoing diplomatic efforts linked to a two-week ceasefire announced Tuesday by the United States and Iran and brokered by Pakistan.
While Pakistani mediators and Tehran said the truce also covered Lebanon, Washington and Tel Aviv have denied that.
The Israeli army has intensified attacks across Lebanon since Wednesday, killing at least 303 people and injuring 1,150 others, according to the Lebanese Civil Defense.
The expanded Israeli offensive on Lebanon since March 2 has killed 1,888 people and wounded 6,092 others, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
April 10, 2026 09:59 AM GMT+03:00
SOURCE:
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/pakistan-defense-chief-calls-israel-curse-for-humanity-in-deleted-post-3217797?s=2
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"Israel is evil and a curse for humanity, while peace talks are underway in Islamabad, genocide is being committed in Lebanon
The end of the American empire
Donald Trump’s war in Iran presages the destruction of US authority, not its renewal
By John Gray
Illustration by Cracked Hat
Trump’s excursion has proved to be a march to disaster. His “major combat operation” has shifted from aiming to block Iran achieving a nuclear capability that was supposedly “obliterated” last June to unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and restoring the situation that existed before the operation began. Whatever the objective may be, the pre-war status quo is irretrievable. Reopening the strait to Western shipping by military force would likely incur high American casualties, and mean the strait would revert to Iranian control as soon as American forces departed. Trump cannot declare victory and walk away without surrendering the vital shipping conduit to Iran. Even if a ceasefire plan that reopened the strait, of the kind that reportedly emerged from Pakistan on 6 April, was agreed and implemented, Tehran would have had (and still has) the upper hand. With its proven capacity to wreak havoc on the world economy, a bombed-out military-theocratic dictatorship has begun the final unravelling of US imperial power.
The Iranian parliament’s national security committee has approved proposals to toll ships transiting the strait, offering safe passage to vessels from friendly and non-aligned countries. In a mocking post on X, the head of parliament’s National Security Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, stated: “Trump has finally achieved his dream of ‘regime change’ – but in the region’s maritime regime! The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran. The 47 years of hospitality are over forever.” The Iranian state, monetising what was for nearly half a century an open international waterway, now owns a crucial link in the global supply chain.
Iran has shown itself well prepared for the conflict into which Trump has blundered. On 18 March, an unprecedented missile and drone attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production hub, inflicted damage the Qataris estimate will take three to five years to repair. Iran’s ability to hit high-value American assets was confirmed by the 27 March attack on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, in which a critical “eye in the sky” Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft was effectively destroyed. An unsuccessful attack on the UK/US base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, around 2,400 miles from Iran’s coastline, revealed unexpected ballistic missile capabilities. The downing of an American fighter jet on 3 April punctured Trump’s boast that Iran’s air defences have been “100 per cent annihilated”. The ejected crew member – rescued in a dramatic extraction operation after a heavy firefight – brings home the perils of the war.
The hazards of Operation Epic Fury were not unforeseen. Sober military professionals in the US, UK and other countries have war-gamed conflict with Iran dozens of times over many years. Trump was warned and chose not to listen. By 30 March, he was using Truth Social to threaten that unless a deal is “shortly reached” and the Hormuz Strait is “immediately ‘Open for Business’”, “We will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalination plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched’.” A day later, the Wall Street Journal was reporting that he told aides he was considering ending the war even if it meant leaving the strait closed. Hormuz is the channel through which around a fifth of the world’s oil is shipped. Ships do not need to be sunk for the conduit to be unsafe. Iran has weaponised Lloyd’s of London, the insurance marketplace for much of the globe’s shipping. All that is needed is a credible threat which leaves them uninsurable. In a dual blockade – with the Houthis closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula – around a quarter of global oil would be choked off. There would be acute shortages to vital ingredients in food supplies, semiconductors and plastics. Economic growth would stall or reverse, and worldwide stagflation would be unavoidable.
The fiasco that is unfolding is not the result of strategic error. In her magisterial study The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam (1984), the American historian Barbara Tuchman described how governments persistently pursue policies contrary to their own interests even though better alternatives are available and known to them. Choosing spectacle over prudence, the Trojans brought the Greek wooden horse inside their walls. Overconfidence and extravagant spending by Renaissance popes fuelled the Protestant Reformation. The stubborn pride of George III’s government provoked rebellion and the loss of Britain’s American colonies. A refusal to admit the war was unwinnable produced humiliating defeat in Vietnam. Hubris, self-deception and corruption led inexorably to ruin.
All these marks of folly are visible in Trump’s war on Iran. The president and his coterie imagined that decapitating the leadership – “getting rid of some people,” as he put it in his golf club homily – would disable the regime. But Tehran is not Caracas, from which President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were extracted in a special operation on 3 January and Venezuela handed over to the deputy leader, Delcy Rodríguez. Iran’s government is multi-layered and – for all its murderous repression of the millions who yearn for a Western way of life – deeply embedded in society. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) manage a business empire spanning oil, telecommunications, construction and banking. The Basij militias, volunteer paramilitary forces used to crush domestic resistance, receive state benefits and jobs in IRGC-linked companies. Religious foundations and clerical elites control billions of dollars of assets seized from dissidents and minorities. For these groups, losing the war means losing their property, their livelihoods and their lives. They will fight to the death. Some may welcome death in battle as an opportunity for martyrdom – an enduring and still potent element in Shia Islam. The White House screens out these facts, along with Iran’s mastery of low-cost techniques of asymmetric warfare.
Corruption plays a part. Hours before the joint US/Israeli attacks of 28 February in which the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed, clusters of bets were placed on sites such as Polymarket, a crypto-based, partly offshore “prediction market” on which gamblers can wager on outcomes ranging from sporting scores to missile strikes. In March this year, a succession of bets minutes before White House announcements regarding the war made hundreds of millions of dollars for anonymous traders. On 23 March, thousands of oil futures contracts totalling around $1.5bn in notional value changed hands in a couple of minutes – a volume around 16 times higher than the daily average. There is no proof that Trump, his aides, or his family are profiting from these trades, but the inescapable conclusion must be that insiders are using privileged information for personal gain.
Trump’s war is folly in precisely Tuchman’s sense. Politically it can only harm him, raising petrol prices at the pump and worsening his dwindling prospects in November’s midterms. It flouts his campaign promises of no more “forever wars”, and alienates him from the neo-isolationist America First wing of his fracturing Maga base and strengthens the hand of his rival, JD Vance. Internationally, his expedition can only marginalise him. Even the European far right – Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni, Alternative for Germany – are distancing themselves.
In the Middle East, the war has undercut the financial foundations of US hegemony. An assurance of protection was the basis of the petrodollar system set up in the early 1970s, when the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement establishing the dollar as the global reserve currency collapsed under the weight of heavy American spending on the Vietnam war. Needing a prop for the sinking dollar, the Nixon administration tasked Henry Kissinger with negotiating a quid pro quo with Saudi Arabia. The upshot was the petrodollar system, in which the Kingdom agreed to price its oil exports exclusively in dollars that could then be recycled in purchases of federal debt. Without the petrodollar, the spiralling American deficit becomes ever more unsustainable.
Some suggest Trump’s war follows a hidden road map: the goal is to stem the rise of China. Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela disrupted Chinese imports of oil from the South American country, and the US is redirecting flows to American Gulf Coast refiners. When, as seems likely, Cuba falls into the American sphere of influence in the coming months, it will be a further setback for Chinese influence. Beijing has invested heavily in Cuban infrastructure, including cybersecurity and surveillance facilities.
Assuming there is any such strategy, the results are mixed. As a major oil importer, China is under some pressure. Unlike Russia, which is benefiting from higher prices, Beijing needs oil to keep flowing to maintain its export-oriented economy. But as Iran’s largest oil buyer, China is one of the countries allowed through the strait and paying the toll in yuan – a direct challenge to the petrodollar.
In some ways the Gulf States are more fragile than Beirut before its collapse after the outbreak of the Lebanese Civil War in 1975. As missiles continue to penetrate their air defences and their safety premium is lost, Dubai and other cities in the United Arab Emirates are Ballardian landscapes of deserted hotels, drained swimming pools and sand-shrouded abandoned automobiles. All of them depend on vulnerable water salination plants for their survival. (Despite its own water shortages, Iran is less reliant on the plants.) An apocalyptic scenario of mass evacuation, fleeing populations and a vast refugee crisis are not unrealistic.
However the war ends, the result will be the re-emergence of Iran as a major power. Toppling Saddam Hussein and his Baathist secular dictatorship was bound to strengthen Tehran and make it the dominant influence on Shia-majority Iraq. Today, the boost to Iranian power is far greater.
As the arbiter of passage through Hormuz, Iran has become the deciding force in the global oil economy. When transport and industry are factored in, renewables meet only a fraction of humanity’s energy needs. Globalisation in its current form is a by-product of hydrocarbons. Requiring large-scale mining for the minerals that go into batteries and magnets, renewables are themselves fossil-fuel derivatives. China rules over these supply chains, where it often holds a near-monopoly, and appears to be expanding its coal production. Any green transition is a distant prospect. Meanwhile, Iran will be the single most important player in energy markets.
Trump’s jaunt has ended in a cul-de-sac. If he retreats from the Middle East, states that were under US protection will waver between shades of neutrality and forging coalitions against a resurgent Iran. More endangered than they were before the war, Israel and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman will be juggling multiple threats. If he opts to “finish the job” and launches a ground operation, the US will be dragged into a debacle larger than Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined.
In his 1 April presidential address, Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back into the Stone Ages, where they belong”. The phrase echoes that of General Curtis LeMay, who in his memoir Mission with LeMay (1965) recalled advising that North Vietnam must be “bombed back into the Stone Age”. LeMay’s plan was to target factories, harbours and bridges; Trump threatened on 6 April to attack bridges, power and, possibly, water plants. It too will fail, at the cost of an irrecoverable strategic defeat.
The cardinal consequence of the war will be the death of an idea of American empire. Founded in the imagination as a city on a hill that left the empires of Europe behind, the founders of the United States ostensibly repudiated anything that smacked of imperial power; but by the time of the First World War, it had acquired several territories that functioned as colonies in a traditional European sense – numerous small Caribbean and Pacific islands (1856), Alaska (1867), Hawaii (1898), the Philippines (1898) and the Panama Canal Zone (1903). It is this old-world imperial order to which Trump aims to revert in his revival of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting America’s hemispheric suzerainty. In the 20th century, the idea of empire mutated with Woodrow Wilson’s fervent promotion of “national self-determination” at the 1919 Versailles Peace Conference. The projection of an American model of government became an anti-imperial project, professedly advancing the rights and aspirations of all peoples. Beneath the accidents of their historical identities, an ideal American was latent in every human being.
Some version of this fanciful notion informs the catastrophe that is under way today. Relentless aerial bombardment does not release an imaginary inner American and unify populations against their governments, no matter how repressive they may be. Especially when civilian infrastructure is targeted: it unites them against the invader. When Trump posts he will “reign down hell on them [sic]”, he expresses the same idea as the American commander who said of a Vietnamese city in 1965: “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it.” The sequel will not be dissimilar in Iran.
This is not simply a case of the lessons of history being ignored. Trump’s war looks more like an example of what Sigmund Freud described as repetition compulsion – an unconscious process in which the mind acts out what it cannot properly remember. A creature of the moment as he may be, Trump seems driven by an impulse to reimagine the past and reassert American – and his own – greatness. Even as he is taking a wrecking ball to the historic White House East Wing to construct a monumental ballroom that may never be built, he seems bent on demolishing a global order he has failed to remake in his image. When an infantile fantasy of omnipotence comes up against unyielding realities, the response is inchoate rage. Psychopathology may be more illuminating than geopolitics at this point. In a more profound sense than is commonly recognised, Donald Trump does not know what he is doing.
Trump-whisperers such as the Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte believe they can inject a sliver of reason into his deliberations. But Trump’s logic is instinctual not rational. As his lifting of sanctions on Russian oil has demonstrated, he has visceral sympathy for Vladimir Putin’s blend of tyranny and oligarchy. Détente with Russia will create many lucrative business opportunities. While Nato may linger on in name, the transatlantic alliance is operationally defunct. America is returning to its pre-1914 trajectory as a civilisation separate from Europe.
In the UK, the default position is to wait out the storm until sanity returns to Washington. Why Putin or Xi Jinping should exhibit similar patience is not explained. Could there be a better time for them to act? Ramping up hybrid warfare in under-defended Europe will give Putin leverage in any peace deal in Ukraine. With Trump having shifted military assets from the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and running down munitions, Xi may be able to absorb Taiwan without firing a shot. There has been talk of an Anglo-Gaullism in which the UK relies on itself and European allies for its security. Obviously, this presupposes much higher defence spending, and soon. But renewing Britain’s defence capacity requires reindustrialising the economy, an enterprise that could take decades. Without an actionable plan, British Gaullism is an idle dream.
Trump’s little excursion is a point of no return in America’s retreat as a global power. In what world could such an outlandish figure be president of the US – twice? Well, our world – the one our rulers made and then showed they did not comprehend when they dismissed him as a passing aberration. Trump may wreck everything he touches, but his standing as a world-historical figure is beyond doubt. Might he be leading America towards another regime change, foreshadowed in the toxic trickster, Tucker Carlson, and the smooth left-populist, Zohran Mamdani? They, too, belong in our world.
[Further reading: The dark side of the Enlightenment]
SOURCE:
https://web.archive.org/web/20260408094520/https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2026/04/the-end-of-the-american-empire
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Red Zone Sealed: 10,000 Troops Deployed as Iran and US Prepare for Islamabad Talks
Who is coming?
Lebanon tension overshadows talks
Mixed-format talks
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eof
