‘Solar minimum’ low point in 2019 or 2020
November 19, 2018 | Baxter Dmitry
Humanity could soon face a long, cold winter which could see temperatures around the globe plunge to record lows that will herald a “mini-Ice Age”, according to new scientific research by NASA.
‘High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.’
Brace yourselves, because it could be about to get very, very cold.
Metro reports: Sunspot activity follows a cycle which is believed to last 11 years as the number of patches peaks and drops.
There have been very few spots on the sun for most of this year. This could mean that it will get very cold, very quickly.
However, it’s difficult to predict the impact of solar activity on the Earth and scientists are stil debating how sunspots affect our weather.
‘It could happen in a matter of months,’ Mlynczak added.
‘It could happen in a matter of months,’ Mlynczak added.
Earlier this year, NASA released a picture showing the blank face of the sun looking more like a snooker ball than the roiling surface of a super-hot star.
The sun is predicted to reach its ‘solar minimum’ low point in 2019 or 2020, according to Nasa’s calculations.
Perhaps the most famous period of low sunspot activity was the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century.
During that time, there was a ‘little ice age’ when London’s Thames River froze over, although researchers believe that global warming will stop this happening again. Solar minimum may enhance the effects of space weather, disrupt communications and navigation, and even cause space junk to ‘hang around’, Nasa said.
Last year, a scientist claimed the chilling effect on the lack of sunspots could actually save us from global warming – although her claims were hotly disputed.
Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University, published a paper which contains ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect human lives’.
https://newspunch.com/scientists-find-earth-is-cooling-not-warming-nasa-predicts-mini-ice-age/
Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University, published a paper which contains ‘the first serious prediction of a reduction of solar activity that might affect human lives’.
‘I hope global warming will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution,’ she said.
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PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA BREAKS HER SILENCE AND CONFIRMS “SUPER” GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM
Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018. The information she unveiled should shake/wake you up.
Zharkova was one of the few that correctly predicted solar cycle 24 would be weaker than cycle 23 — only 2 out of 150 models predicted this.
Her models have run at a 93% accuracy and her findings suggest a Super Grand Solar Minimum is on the cards beginning 2020 and running for 350-400 years.
The last time we had a little ice age only two magnetic fields of the sun went out of phase.
This time, all four magnetic fields are going out of phase.
Here’s a great (and relatively brief) video explanation of Zharkova’s presentation from Diamond and Lee Wheelbarger:
And here’s the presentation in full:
If the world was looking for an Epiphany moment, this should be it.
Even if you believe the IPCC’s worst case scenario, Zharkova’s analysis blows any ‘warming’ out of the water.
Lee Wheelbarger sums it up: even if the IPCC’s worst case scenarios are seen, that’s only a 1.5 watts per square meter increase. Zharkova’s analysis shows a 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI to the planet.
Forget the arguments, debates and attempts to win over AGW alarmists — and just prepare.
Time is almost up.
Solar Minimum is Coming
Jun 27. 2017
High up in the clear blue noontime sky, the sun appears to be much the same day-in, day-out, year after year.
But astronomers have long known that this is not true. The sun does change.
Properly-filtered telescopes reveal a fiery disk often speckled with dark sunspots.
Sunspots are strongly magnetized, and they crackle with solar flares — magnetic
explosions that illuminate Earth with flashes of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet
radiation. The sun is a seething mass of activity.
Until it’s not. Every 11 years or so, sunspots fade away, bringing a period of
relative calm. “This is called solar minimum,” says Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard
Space Flight. Center in Greenbelt, MD. “And it’s a regular part of the sunspot cycle.”
The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Sunspot counts were relatively high
in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019 - 2020.
While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar
minimum, that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes
form.
relative calm. “This is called solar minimum,” says Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard
Space Flight. Center in Greenbelt, MD. “And it’s a regular part of the sunspot cycle.”
The sun is heading toward solar minimum now. Sunspot counts were relatively high
in 2014, and now they are sliding toward a low point expected in 2019 - 2020.
While intense activity such as sunspots and solar flares subside during solar
minimum, that doesn’t mean the sun becomes dull. Solar activity simply changes
form.
For instance, says Pesnell, “during solar minimum we can see the development of
long-lived coronal holes.” Coronal holes are vast regions in the sun’s atmosphere
where the sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to
escape the sun as the fast solar wind.
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles released from the upper atmosphere
of the Sun, called the corona. This plasma consists of mostly electrons, protons and
alpha particles withkinetic energy between 0.5 and 10 keV.
Embedded within the solar-wind plasma is theinterplanetary magnetic field.[2]
The solar wind varies in density, temperature and speed over time and over solar
latitude and longitude. Its particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their
high energy resulting from the high temperature of the corona, which in turn is a
result of the coronal magnetic field. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind
Pesnell says “We see these holes throughout the solar cycle, but during solar
minimum, they can last for a long time - six months or more.” Streams of solar wind
flowing from coronal holes can cause space weather effects near Earth when they
hit Earth’s magnetic field. These effects can include temporary disturbances of the
Earth’s magnetosphere, called geomagnetic storms, auroras, and disruptions to
communications and navigation systems.
During solar minimum, the effects of Earth’s upper atmosphere on satellites in low
Earth orbit changes too.
Normally Earth’s upper atmosphere is heated and puffed up by ultraviolet radiation
from the sun. Satellites in low Earth orbit experience friction as they skim through
the outskirts of our atmosphere. This friction creates drag, causing satellites to
lose speed over time and eventually fall back to Earth.
Drag is a good thing, for space junk; natural and man-made particles floating in
orbit around Earth.
orbit around Earth.
Drag helps keep low Earth orbit clear of debris.
But during solar minimum, this natural heating mechanism subsides.
Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and, to some degree, can collapse.
Without a normal amount of drag, space junk tends to hang around.
There are unique space weather effects that get stronger during solar minimum.
For example, the number of galactic cosmic rays that reach Earth’s upper
atmosphere increases during solar minimum. Galactic cosmic rays are high energy particles
accelerated toward the solar system by distant supernova explosions and other
violent events in the galaxy.
Pesnell says that “During solar minimum, the sun’s magnetic field weakens and
provides less shielding from these cosmic rays. This can pose an increased threat
(and totally prevents) to astronauts traveling through space.”
A Van Allen radiation belt is a zone of energetic charged particles, most of which
originate from the solar wind, that are captured by and held around a planet by that
planet's magnetic field. Earth has two such belts and sometimes others may be
temporarily created.
The discovery of the belts is credited to James Van Allen, and as a result, Earth's
belts are known as the Van Allen belts.
Earth's two main belts extend from an altitude of about 640 to 58,000 km (400 to
36,040 mi)[1] above the surface in which region radiation levels vary. Most of the
particles that form the belts are thought to come from solar windand other particles
by cosmic rays.[2] By trapping the solar wind, the magnetic field deflects those
energetic particles and protects the atmosphere from destruction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt
Many things can change temperatures on Earth: a volcano erupts, swathing the Earth with bright haze that blocks sunlight, and temperatures drop;
- greenhouse
gases trap heat in the atmosphere, and temperatures climb.
From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum.
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The term was introduced after John A. Eddy[1] published a landmark 1976 paper in Science.[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze:
alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly— an event that is rare today.
The impact of the solar minimum is clear in this image, which shows the temperature difference between 1680, a year at the center of the Maunder Minimum, and 1780, a year of normal solar activity, as calculated by a general circulation model.
Deep blue across eastern and central North America and northern Eurasia illustrates where the drop in temperature was the greatest. Nearly all other land areas were also cooler in 1680, as indicated by the varying shades of blue. The few regions that appear to have been warmer in 1680 are Alaska and the eastern Pacific Ocean (left), the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland (left of center), and north of Iceland (top center).
https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=7122
_
But during solar minimum, this natural heating mechanism subsides.
Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and, to some degree, can collapse.
Without a normal amount of drag, space junk tends to hang around.
There are unique space weather effects that get stronger during solar minimum.
For example, the number of galactic cosmic rays that reach Earth’s upper
atmosphere increases during solar minimum. Galactic cosmic rays are high energy particles
accelerated toward the solar system by distant supernova explosions and other
violent events in the galaxy.
provides less shielding from these cosmic rays. This can pose an increased threat
(and totally prevents) to astronauts traveling through space.”
A Van Allen radiation belt is a zone of energetic charged particles, most of which
originate from the solar wind, that are captured by and held around a planet by that
planet's magnetic field. Earth has two such belts and sometimes others may be
temporarily created.
The discovery of the belts is credited to James Van Allen, and as a result, Earth's
belts are known as the Van Allen belts.
Earth's two main belts extend from an altitude of about 640 to 58,000 km (400 to
36,040 mi)[1] above the surface in which region radiation levels vary. Most of the
particles that form the belts are thought to come from solar windand other particles
by cosmic rays.[2] By trapping the solar wind, the magnetic field deflects those
energetic particles and protects the atmosphere from destruction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt
Solar minimum brings about many changes to our sun, but less solar activity doesn’t
make the sun and our space environment any less interesting.
make the sun and our space environment any less interesting.
For more news about the changes ahead, stay tuned to science.nasa.gov
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CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THE MAUNDER MINIMUM
Many things can change temperatures on Earth: a volcano erupts, swathing the Earth with bright haze that blocks sunlight, and temperatures drop;
From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum.
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The term was introduced after John A. Eddy[1] published a landmark 1976 paper in Science.[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze:
alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly— an event that is rare today.
The impact of the solar minimum is clear in this image, which shows the temperature difference between 1680, a year at the center of the Maunder Minimum, and 1780, a year of normal solar activity, as calculated by a general circulation model.
Deep blue across eastern and central North America and northern Eurasia illustrates where the drop in temperature was the greatest. Nearly all other land areas were also cooler in 1680, as indicated by the varying shades of blue. The few regions that appear to have been warmer in 1680 are Alaska and the eastern Pacific Ocean (left), the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland (left of center), and north of Iceland (top center).
If energy from the Sun
decreased only slightly, why did temperatures drop so severely in the
Northern Hemisphere?
Climate scientist Drew Shindell and colleagues at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies tackled that question by combining temperature records gleaned from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and the few measurements recorded in the historical record, with an advanced computer model of the Earth’s climate. The group first calculated the amount of energy coming from the Sun during the Maunder Minimum and entered the information into a general circulation model. The model is a mathematical representation of the way various Earth systems—ocean surface temperatures, different layers of the atmosphere, energy reflected and absorbed from land, and so forth—interact to produce the climate.
Climate scientist Drew Shindell and colleagues at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies tackled that question by combining temperature records gleaned from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and the few measurements recorded in the historical record, with an advanced computer model of the Earth’s climate. The group first calculated the amount of energy coming from the Sun during the Maunder Minimum and entered the information into a general circulation model. The model is a mathematical representation of the way various Earth systems—ocean surface temperatures, different layers of the atmosphere, energy reflected and absorbed from land, and so forth—interact to produce the climate.
When the model started
with the decreased solar energy and returned temperatures that
matched the paleoclimate record, Shindell and his colleagues knew
that the model was showing how the Maunder Minimum could have caused
the extreme drop in temperatures. The model showed that the drop in
temperature was related to ozone in
the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that is between 10 and
50 kilometers from the Earth’s surface. Ozone is created when
high-energy ultraviolet light from the Sun interacts with oxygen.
During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun emitted less strong ultraviolet
light, and so less ozone formed. The decrease in ozone
affected planetary waves, the giant wiggles in the jet
stream that we are used to seeing on television weather reports.
The change to the
planetary waves kicked the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) — the
balance between a permanent low-pressure system near Greenland and a
permanent high-pressure system to its south — into a negative phase.
When the NAO is negative, both pressure systems are relatively weak.
Under these conditions, winter storms crossing the Atlantic generally
head eastward toward Europe, which experiences a more severe winter.
(When the NAO is positive, winter storms track farther north, making
winters in Europe milder.)
The model results, shown above, illustrate that the NAO was more negative on average during the Maunder Minimum, and Europe remained unusually cold. These results matched the paleoclimate record.
The model results, shown above, illustrate that the NAO was more negative on average during the Maunder Minimum, and Europe remained unusually cold. These results matched the paleoclimate record.
By creating a model that
could reproduce temperatures recorded in paleoclimate records,
Shindell and colleagues reached a better understanding of how changes
in the stratosphere influence weather patterns. With such an
understanding, scientists are better poised to understand what
factors could influence Earth’s climate in the future. To read more
about how ancient temperature records are used to improve climate
models, see Paleoclimatology:
Understanding the Past to Predict the Future, the
final installment of a series
of articles about
paleoclimatology on the Earth Observatory.
- Further Reading:
- Glaciers, Old Masters, and Galileo: The Puzzle of the Chilly 17th Century, by Drew Shindell at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=7122
_
But the Nasa scientist went on to say that the trend he sees is overall global warming, not cooling, and insisted this ‘solar minimum’ does not mean the world is going to shiver through a depressingly long winter. ‘We see a cooling trend,’ Martin Mlynczak of Nasa’s Langley Research Center told Space Weather. ‘High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. (Photo: Getty) ‘If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.’ ‘It could happen in a matter of months,’ Mlynczak added. Sunspot activity follows a cycle which is believed to last 11 years as the number of patches peaks and drops. There have been very few spots on the sun for most of this year.
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